FROZEN PREDICTION

McNeese vs LSU

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 5 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

LSU by 18.6

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactModerately leans home

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-02T04:32:03.179251-05:00 · Snapshot 284 · Home win probability 0.9242 · 80% margin interval 2.0 to 35.3.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 1, 2026 · 9:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.10810810810810811	0.3507153997138585
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.04054054054054054	0.08795110387231019
Close-game grit	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.027027	0.032381438041815404	0.02702702702702703	0.0050761310663897385
Defensive toughness	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.06756756756756757	0.22206655869553327
Scoring punch	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.06756756756756757	0.16544074703403622
Transfer portal impact	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.02027027027027027	0.04054054054054054	0.07005813110221366
Previous-season performance	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.05405405405405406	0.10002419043026806
Recruiting strength	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.06756756756756757	0.16761365958736582
Returning production	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.05405405405405406	0.05937168121317088
Team talent	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.06756756756756757	0.16707930788500722
Big-game wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.08108108108108109	0.22791350051162304
Recent form	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.06476287608363081	0.05405405405405406	0.1447189091405768
Wins away from home	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.04054054054054054	0.027240762444497475
Tough schedules	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.08108108108108109	0.13369937831821055
Statement wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.04054054054054054	0.1386670253035613
Winning	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.10810810810810811	0.23878269251475914

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.