FROZEN PREDICTION

West Virginia vs Iowa State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 5 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

West Virginia by 2.5

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans away

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsStrongly leans away

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-02T20:08:07.885673-05:00 · Snapshot 284 · Home win probability 0.4245 · 80% margin interval -19.1 to 14.2.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 1, 2026 · 9:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.12952575216726162	-0.01615446936978518
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	0.009703425301144904
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.032381438041815404	0.032381438041815404	-0.07137773552392376
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.0809535951045385	0.04143195455756321
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.0809535951045385	-0.08230545260099614
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.011933828681123262
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.027352384085926204
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.010341414357386627
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	-0.011993818748960536
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.003380990284495756
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.0971443141254462	-0.2660329160243513
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06476287608363081	0.06476287608363081	-0.01964218356566855
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	-0.13706782778922066
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.0971443141254462	-0.08318651183721468
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	0.05449737560233104
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.12952575216726162	-0.13032415598182068

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.