FROZEN PREDICTION

Michigan State vs Wisconsin

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 5 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Wisconsin by 7.6

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactModerately leans home

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-02T20:08:07.885673-05:00 · Snapshot 284 · Home win probability 0.7218 · 80% margin interval -9.0 to 24.3.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 1, 2026 · 9:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.13036565977742448	0.06471304412694547
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.04888712241653418	-0.03231100278186524
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.032381438041815404	0.02702702702702703	0.035913326049772966
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.08147853736089031	-0.05617861970936273
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.08147853736089031	0.10979692286944875
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.07283674637500348
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.001637792274117149
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.0014474786065301823
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.010488101243679781
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.011543306381767149
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.09777424483306836	0.10317285896852839
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06476287608363081	0.06518282988871224	0.13062317753751332
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.04888712241653418	0.12849893273074317
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.09777424483306836	-0.03246738534722683
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.04888712241653418	0.05469929293163478
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.13036565977742448	0.1306723962591755

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.