FROZEN PREDICTION

Virginia vs Florida State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 5 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Virginia by 3.2

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactModerately leans away

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-02T20:08:07.885673-05:00 · Snapshot 284 · Home win probability 0.4017 · 80% margin interval -19.9 to 13.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 1, 2026 · 9:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.13036565977742448	-0.16173075392167868
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.04888712241653418	-0.009816494383426034
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.032381438041815404	0.02702702702702703	-0.035464409474150804
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.08147853736089031	-0.123227752660679
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.08147853736089031	-0.09753477335984036
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.07283674637500348
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	-0.003808904769574791
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.054039443282811586
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.03177583149075261
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.040801487978045156
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.09777424483306836	-0.17339914887036723
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06476287608363081	0.06518282988871224	-0.08799071123441997
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.04888712241653418	0.00021768442664584636
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.09777424483306836	0.005532583522369287
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.04888712241653418	-0.0550022329450353
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.13036565977742448	-0.13082100055103618

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.