FROZEN PREDICTION

California vs UNLV

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 5 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

California by 6.4

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans away

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesStrongly leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningNeutral effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-02T20:08:07.885673-05:00 · Snapshot 284 · Home win probability 0.3118 · 80% margin interval -23.0 to 10.3.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 1, 2026 · 9:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.12952575216726162	-0.24080470034903342
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	-0.04528265140534288
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.032381438041815404	0.032381438041815404	-0.07137773552392376
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.0809535951045385	-0.09047325688274649
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.0809535951045385	-0.14096756588349038
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.006793102480024013
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.0021737396698507227
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.01852104772668559
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	-0.0445484696389963
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.00647686720917953
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.0971443141254462	-0.21164755925161927
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06476287608363081	0.06476287608363081	-0.028570448822790626
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	-0.12378042776293463
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.0971443141254462	-0.30959699172616406
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	0.05449737560233104
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.12952575216726162	0.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.