FROZEN PREDICTION

Purdue vs Illinois

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 5 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Illinois by 4.2

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritNeutral effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsNeutral effect

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-02T20:08:07.885673-05:00 · Snapshot 284 · Home win probability 0.6260 · 80% margin interval -12.5 to 20.8.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 1, 2026 · 9:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.12952575216726162	0.05497912009112627
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	0.03881370120457961
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.032381438041815404	0.032381438041815404	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.0809535951045385	0.07163186801512893
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.0809535951045385	-0.016031928137548168
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.04813922892600804
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.037423478328287546
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.019101781370228277
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	-0.027414442854766956
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.006461728446711624
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.0971443141254462	0.0
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06476287608363081	0.06476287608363081	0.10535353003404041
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.0971443141254462	-0.17467285329027432
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	0.05449737560233104
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.12952575216726162	0.13032415598182068

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.