FROZEN PREDICTION

Old Dominion vs Georgia State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 5 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Georgia State by 8.4

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceModerately leans away

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-03T13:15:06.081371-05:00 · Snapshot 284 · Home win probability 0.7412 · 80% margin interval -8.2 to 25.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 1, 2026 · 9:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13036565977742448	0.12952575216726162	0.1587872298583375
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04888712241653418	0.0485721570627231	0.03886384858504693
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.032381438041815404	0.035464409474150804
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08147853736089031	0.0809535951045385	0.0017356772319762548
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08147853736089031	0.0809535951045385	0.1382177282293527
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.009363465580573644
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	-0.05819512264641938
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.012415359381888518
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.03873328479101544
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.0339411054530124
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09777424483306836	0.0971443141254462	0.05012294855441431
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06518282988871224	0.06476287608363081	0.13040638103027435
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04888712241653418	0.0485721570627231	0.04626787631106802
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09777424483306836	0.0971443141254462	-0.16204520092928631
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04888712241653418	0.0485721570627231	0.10949960854736634
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13036565977742448	0.12952575216726162	0.26114515653285686

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.