FROZEN PREDICTION

Akron vs Central Michigan

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 5 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Central Michigan by 4.9

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-03T13:15:06.081371-05:00 · Snapshot 284 · Home win probability 0.6464 · 80% margin interval -11.8 to 21.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 1, 2026 · 9:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.13036565977742448	0.027324973640439454
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.04888712241653418	-0.002865144468756846
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.032381438041815404	0.02702702702702703	0.035913326049772966
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.08147853736089031	0.11011627302346033
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.08147853736089031	-0.052249402695584354
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.010134574510738535
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.01606906811570744
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.019776884230846656
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	-0.036267023359952126
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.014142127272088495
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.09777424483306836	0.00047845338356301836
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06476287608363081	0.06518282988871224	0.016572963003367407
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.04888712241653418	0.00021768442664584636
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.09777424483306836	0.09796454331152255
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.04888712241653418	0.00020191732930373643
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.13036565977742448	0.1315174811057459

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.