FROZEN PREDICTION

Maryland vs Nebraska

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 5 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Nebraska by 6.6

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritNot used — data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesStrongly leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-03T13:15:06.081371-05:00 · Snapshot 284 · Home win probability 0.6949 · 80% margin interval -10.0 to 23.3.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 1, 2026 · 9:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13036565977742448	0.13036565977742448	0.11420892214864554
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04888712241653418	0.04888712241653418	0.15674986939748745
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08147853736089031	0.08147853736089031	-0.03370850467425708
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08147853736089031	0.08147853736089031	0.040821722484512206
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.011236158696688373
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.009650302392935387
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.001033705885506015
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	-0.007995879165973697
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.030802335368002927
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09777424483306836	0.09777424483306836	0.05108403808729858
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06518282988871224	0.06518282988871224	0.16947898601865546
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04888712241653418	0.04888712241653418	-0.001195655297123538
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09777424483306836	0.09777424483306836	-0.2761257851618959
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04888712241653418	0.04888712241653418	0.06307837737908562
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13036565977742448	0.13036565977742448	0.2623384816567821

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.