FROZEN PREDICTION

Utah State vs Boise State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 5 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Boise State by 11.3

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritNeutral effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactModerately leans away

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-03T13:15:06.081371-05:00 · Snapshot 284 · Home win probability 0.8081 · 80% margin interval -5.3 to 28.0.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 1, 2026 · 9:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.12952575216726162	0.2151690948119398
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	0.08409635260992249
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.032381438041815404	0.032381438041815404	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.0809535951045385	0.035029678691882546
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.0809535951045385	0.14414354501645446
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.05631114761211263
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.01294781424132197
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.026021948650093996
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.0011422684522819568
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.02701259849687411
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.0971443141254462	0.1889732014052394
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06476287608363081	0.06476287608363081	0.14463789716537753
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	0.06581312897866534
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.0971443141254462	-0.052636365301063526
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	0.16349212680699315
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.12952575216726162	0.26064831196364135

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.