FROZEN PREDICTION

UTEP vs New Mexico

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 5 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

New Mexico by 9.3

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-03T14:32:46.471362-05:00 · Snapshot 284 · Home win probability 0.7638 · 80% margin interval -7.3 to 26.0.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 1, 2026 · 9:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.13036565977742448	0.2878831670757316
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.04888712241653418	0.08772113224253353
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.032381438041815404	0.02702702702702703	-0.035464409474150804
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.08147853736089031	0.17318582465451027
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.08147853736089031	0.12764719915802308
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.014320594417347931
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.03713940476525319
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.045976343797983515
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.05789224201338097
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.023591616648192395
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.09777424483306836	0.00047845338356301836
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06476287608363081	0.06518282988871224	0.13798579146237672
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.04888712241653418	0.00021768442664584636
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.09777424483306836	-0.21322935134011534
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.04888712241653418	0.10919666853396583
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.13036565977742448	0.2618416370875666

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.