FROZEN PREDICTION

UL Monroe vs South Alabama

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 5 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

South Alabama by 8.3

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactModerately leans away

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-03T14:54:52.955486-05:00 · Snapshot 284 · Home win probability 0.7386 · 80% margin interval -8.4 to 25.0.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 1, 2026 · 9:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.12952575216726162	0.15879674152265708
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	0.035579226104197975
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.032381438041815404	0.032381438041815404	0.03568886776196189
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.0809535951045385	0.027187641857672556
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.0809535951045385	0.12276500951622553
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.06077256356520948
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.01506850609687993
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.015836606459409455
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.0414331920418637
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.018047927988804467
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.0971443141254462	0.12895563892596593
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06476287608363081	0.06476287608363081	0.024999142719941803
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.0971443141254462	0.08145443180968891
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	0.05449737560233105
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.12952575216726162	0.13032415598182068

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.