FROZEN PREDICTION

Baylor vs Arizona State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 5 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Arizona State by 0.5

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionModerately leans away

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-03T14:54:52.955486-05:00 · Snapshot 284 · Home win probability 0.5155 · 80% margin interval -16.2 to 17.2.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 1, 2026 · 9:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.12952575216726162	-0.10743888450392398
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.0485721570627231	-0.08577859663182225
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.031042835288118308	0.032381438041815404	0.06989312952580323
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.0809535951045385	-0.14039183185387638
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.0809535951045385	0.09409174734956066
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02533783783783784	0.02027027027027027	0.016458006994089915
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.02702702702702703	0.010563472288816423
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.033783783783783786	0.009405675671912922
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.02702702702702703	-0.053324743022891405
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.033783783783783786	0.008213596536834417
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.0971443141254462	-0.04453680099774667
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.062085670576236617	0.06476287608363081	-0.08553702216564103
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.0485721570627231	0.07990998680611591
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.0971443141254462	0.024290011322798087
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.0485721570627231	-0.03579530884958455
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.12952575216726162	-0.04481296415706057

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.