FROZEN PREDICTION

Texas Southern vs Florida Atlantic

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 5 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Florida Atlantic by 8.6

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-03T15:05:58.742259-05:00 · Snapshot 284 · Home win probability 0.7456 · 80% margin interval -8.1 to 25.2.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 1, 2026 · 9:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.10810810810810811	0.021910765668309018
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.04054054054054054	0.0006202761620060573
Close-game grit	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.027027	0.032381438041815404	0.02702702702702703	0.0764538665903135
Defensive toughness	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.06756756756756757	-0.037845080315200744
Scoring punch	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.06756756756756757	0.020008510361597204
Transfer portal impact	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.02027027027027027	0.04054054054054054	0.041527100686112775
Previous-season performance	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.05405405405405406	0.05238864612863654
Recruiting strength	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.06756756756756757	0.08291801317898952
Returning production	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.05405405405405406	0.10838538207472394
Team talent	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.06756756756756757	0.08823940839201494
Big-game wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.08108108108108109	0.00379528068586453
Recent form	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.06476287608363081	0.05405405405405406	0.12686237862633268
Wins away from home	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.04054054054054054	0.027240762444497475
Tough schedules	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.08108108108108109	-0.011340351976976443
Statement wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.04054054054054054	0.029672274098899182
Winning	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.10810810810810811	0.23878269251475914

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.