FROZEN PREDICTION

Temple vs South Florida

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 5 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

South Florida by 8.2

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsNeutral effect

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-03T15:05:58.742259-05:00 · Snapshot 284 · Home win probability 0.7363 · 80% margin interval -8.4 to 24.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 1, 2026 · 9:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.12952575216726162	0.031418148075786675
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	0.07115845220839595
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.032381438041815404	0.032381438041815404	0.07137773552392376
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.0809535951045385	0.0017335612700561495
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.0809535951045385	0.0005315390350524047
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.00022031683718996137
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.04627434766802385
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.0244488863931477
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	-0.02533759112334522
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.040112674285756086
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.0971443141254462	0.15703834193767352
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06476287608363081	0.06476287608363081	0.12499571359970896
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	0.11558156026214952
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.0971443141254462	-0.2337766190745723
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	0.0
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.12952575216726162	0.39097246794546203

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.