FROZEN PREDICTION

Arkansas vs Texas A&M

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 5 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Texas A&M by 2.7

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritNot used — data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsNeutral effect

WinningNeutral effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-03T17:02:48.101356-05:00 · Snapshot 284 · Home win probability 0.5836 · 80% margin interval -13.9 to 19.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 1, 2026 · 9:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13036565977742448	0.13036565977742448	0.014667884619033966
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04888712241653418	0.04888712241653418	0.013021796003944958
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08147853736089031	0.08147853736089031	-0.01239113623430263
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08147853736089031	0.08147853736089031	0.021979347394739557
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.005397762511154215
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.030453151172113453
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.04119288917059262
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.0605402279709437
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.03649703318300804
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09777424483306836	0.09777424483306836	-0.09534933133500267
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06518282988871224	0.06518282988871224	0.03953910596405536
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04888712241653418	0.04888712241653418	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09777424483306836	0.09777424483306836	-0.11003997104884294
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04888712241653418	0.04888712241653418	0.0
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13036565977742448	0.13036565977742448	0.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.