FROZEN PREDICTION

Fresno State vs Washington State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 5 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Washington State by 2.5

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritNot used — data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningStrongly leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-03T17:02:48.101356-05:00 · Snapshot 284 · Home win probability 0.5759 · 80% margin interval -14.2 to 19.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 1, 2026 · 9:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13036565977742448	0.13036565977742448	0.033898028787270065
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04888712241653418	0.04888712241653418	0.026043592007889915
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08147853736089031	0.08147853736089031	0.047437776390607034
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08147853736089031	0.08147853736089031	0.037424985054859784
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.032276416648330336
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.014050781130847873
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.00396423303423335
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.052570309451612784
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.004385194861532524
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09777424483306836	0.09777424483306836	0.0643850041812949
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06518282988871224	0.06518282988871224	-0.12041454998144133
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04888712241653418	0.04888712241653418	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09777424483306836	0.09777424483306836	0.24759905083221062
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04888712241653418	0.04888712241653418	-0.10970152587667008
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13036565977742448	0.13036565977742448	-0.2623384816567821

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.