FROZEN PREDICTION

Texas Tech vs Colorado

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 5 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Texas Tech by 7.2

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritNeutral effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceModerately leans away

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningStrongly leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-03T18:00:02.018125-05:00 · Snapshot 284 · Home win probability 0.2893 · 80% margin interval -23.9 to 9.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 1, 2026 · 9:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.12952575216726162	-0.22421789352359855
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	-0.11644110361373884
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.032381438041815404	0.032381438041815404	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.0809535951045385	-0.11624377496679726
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.0809535951045385	-0.1009691091645053
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.011860389735393294
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	-0.06464392217573384
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.025351927208856585
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	-0.04122550686872153
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.0005777961008578449
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.0971443141254462	-0.2305603142195657
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06476287608363081	0.06476287608363081	-0.10892483613688925
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	-0.0743053493719677
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.0971443141254462	0.018282764685000494
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	-0.05449737560233104
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.12952575216726162	-0.26064831196364135

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.