FROZEN PREDICTION

San José State vs Hawai'i

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 5 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

San José State by 0.4

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-03T18:55:28.344079-05:00 · Snapshot 284 · Home win probability 0.4863 · 80% margin interval -17.1 to 16.2.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 1, 2026 · 9:50 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13036565977742448	0.12952575216726162	-0.06923962685082
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04888712241653418	0.0485721570627231	-0.003247249421728135
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.032381438041815404	-0.035913326049772966
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08147853736089031	0.0809535951045385	-0.054164996758134756
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08147853736089031	0.0809535951045385	-0.05111534198631483
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.02930213934626577
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.03093771290547878
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.005546006295832802
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.0630324500486498
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.010523963042262462
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09777424483306836	0.0971443141254462	-0.07788474607705026
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06518282988871224	0.06476287608363081	-0.03972855748263064
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04888712241653418	0.0485721570627231	-0.00021768442664584636
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09777424483306836	0.0971443141254462	-0.0645509298318018
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04888712241653418	0.0485721570627231	-0.000555304665307732
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13036565977742448	0.12952575216726162	-0.1315174811057459

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.