FROZEN PREDICTION

South Alabama vs Arkansas State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 6 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Arkansas State by 3.1

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesNeutral effect

Close-game gritNeutral effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-05T05:00:47.825910-05:00 · Snapshot 378 · Home win probability 0.5950 · 80% margin interval -13.5 to 19.8.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 4, 2026 · 5:07 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	0.018627031207336026
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.0
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.033720040795512496	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	0.15147337418368906
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	-0.0460019702488234
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	0.014955382304501531
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.0021843307205263937
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.009044745018913954
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.0378506228051612
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.008780482231376974
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	0.013351925614281841
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.06744008159102499	-0.0376471428917433
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	0.14592572576371146
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.044073889761224325
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	-0.10949545467554861

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.