FROZEN PREDICTION

South Florida vs UTSA

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 6 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

UTSA by 2.5

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningNeutral effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-05T05:00:47.825910-05:00 · Snapshot 378 · Home win probability 0.5761 · 80% margin interval -14.2 to 19.2.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 4, 2026 · 5:07 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	-0.0053647432506399115
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.07358062552329862
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.033720040795512496	0.026704957114853836
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	-0.03390212556900827
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	0.004751297609486669
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	-0.015394638998649027
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.019152952047743938
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.014017639800275535
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.042289893381075166
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.000908325748073472
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	0.007561229933882092
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.06744008159102499	-0.08042798708690613
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.007676146679020647
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	0.10882502398063466
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.044073889761224325
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	0.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.