FROZEN PREDICTION

Washington State vs Utah State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 6 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Utah State by 1.2

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-05T05:00:47.825910-05:00 · Snapshot 378 · Home win probability 0.5381 · 80% margin interval -15.4 to 17.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 4, 2026 · 5:07 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.1359300476947536	-0.009376834315785731
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050973767885532595	-0.02184940826538232
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.02702702702702703	-0.04112090741579263
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08495627980922099	0.01430866156984983
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08495627980922099	-0.03146497534775461
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	0.04220582110443572
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.010429326189821128
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.008090890009395064
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.01847749024799279
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.012464878547000045
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10194753577106519	-0.028416124444288857
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.0679650238473768	-0.07869407078543782
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050973767885532595	0.0003103911525763753
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10194753577106519	0.06610256979695167
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050973767885532595	-0.04377453763836094
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.1359300476947536	0.0016376812651407169

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.