FROZEN PREDICTION

Sacramento State vs Bowling Green

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 6 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Bowling Green by 2.6

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionAway data unavailable

Team talentAway data unavailable

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-05T05:00:47.825910-05:00 · Snapshot 378 · Home win probability 0.5797 · 80% margin interval -14.0 to 19.3.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 4, 2026 · 5:07 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.1359300476947536	0.00704820740463713
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050973767885532595	0.0004538750787697679
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.02702702702702703	-0.014415950300938797
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08495627980922099	0.029791695506725918
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08495627980922099	-0.016349063762371108
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	-0.03723354548510462
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.03190333340684867
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.028438708003549654
Returning production	Measured	Data unavailable	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.030884913637491754
Team talent	Measured	Data unavailable	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.02457721951792001
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10194753577106519	-0.03528428082486873
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.0679650238473768	0.04277409914045685
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050973767885532595	0.041972813459112676
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10194753577106519	0.09863517813358294
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050973767885532595	-0.04377453763836094
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.1359300476947536	0.0016376812651407169

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.