FROZEN PREDICTION

Ball State vs Northwestern

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 6 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Northwestern by 16.6

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-05T05:00:47.825910-05:00 · Snapshot 378 · Home win probability 0.8998 · 80% margin interval 0.0 to 33.3.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 4, 2026 · 5:07 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.1359300476947536	0.4353203561792478
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.050973767885532595	0.10522513847286184
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.032381438041815404	0.02702702702702703	-0.039488508444655304
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.08495627980922099	0.2435860236092776
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.08495627980922099	0.19638137684550194
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02027027027027027	0.015202702702702704	0.007452556273949969
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02027027027027027	0.042405241958611874
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.02533783783783784	0.02651427028994449
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02027027027027027	0.07653041148425284
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.02533783783783784	0.03586896165682442
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.10194753577106519	0.17776375889800466
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06476287608363081	0.0679650238473768	0.18971330434103234
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.050973767885532595	0.0018933860307158643
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.10194753577106519	0.10439428366242585
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.050973767885532595	0.11821777573099865
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.1359300476947536	0.2991489297849225

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.