FROZEN PREDICTION

Texas vs Oklahoma

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 6 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Texas by 10.3

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsStrongly leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningStrongly leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-05T05:00:47.825910-05:00 · Snapshot 378 · Home win probability 0.2147 · 80% margin interval -26.9 to 6.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 4, 2026 · 5:07 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.12952575216726162	-0.22916079229595793
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	-0.10245650049236628
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.032381438041815404	0.032381438041815404	-0.03846725391591421
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.0809535951045385	-0.0009877315292525224
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.0809535951045385	-0.12140421389308242
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.02144600812680016
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.008549579940833867
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.0149823109739054
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	-0.009241990204826737
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.008855923731008589
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.0971443141254462	-0.25887630201800715
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06476287608363081	0.06476287608363081	-0.09038160958887331
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	-0.14935794891523796
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.0971443141254462	-0.11476545070841546
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.0485721570627231	-0.05290533080978723
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.12952575216726162	-0.2628718855159674

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.