FROZEN PREDICTION

Stanford vs Notre Dame

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 6 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Notre Dame by 20.4

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessStrongly leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsStrongly leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-05T05:00:47.825910-05:00 · Snapshot 378 · Home win probability 0.9421 · 80% margin interval 3.8 to 37.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 4, 2026 · 5:07 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1359300476947536	0.13488016318204998	0.477301446797299
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050973767885532595	0.050580061193268744	0.1574927918199967
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.033720040795512496	-0.03899396392876887
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08495627980922099	0.08430010198878124	0.2689926920676713
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08495627980922099	0.08430010198878124	0.24779538975323656
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	-0.008564817045760013
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.050110725244897514
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.038213081327832764
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.023286700038566255
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.03876280129903579
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10194753577106519	0.10116012238653749	0.36344262015697437
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0679650238473768	0.06744008159102499	0.20438669327969167
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050973767885532595	0.050580061193268744	0.15643244013723392
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10194753577106519	0.10116012238653749	0.07732363533421642
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050973767885532595	0.050580061193268744	0.17702539816520718
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1359300476947536	0.13488016318204998	0.3302578596000634

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.