FROZEN PREDICTION

Hawai'i vs Arizona State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 6 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Arizona State by 12.2

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesStrongly leans home

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-05T05:00:47.825910-05:00 · Snapshot 378 · Home win probability 0.8266 · 80% margin interval -4.4 to 28.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 4, 2026 · 5:07 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.13488016318204998	0.2181279551890761
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.050580061193268744	-0.06390780006924296
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.032381438041815404	0.033720040795512496	0.07856690680296576
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.08430010198878124	0.10898881246897585
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.08430010198878124	0.22914828804173132
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02027027027027027	0.015202702702702704	-0.0006716270974301101
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02027027027027027	0.01835303365594037
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.02533783783783784	0.044171476721860316
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02027027027027027	-0.045069257390489996
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.02533783783783784	0.053824164725513046
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.10116012238653749	0.15711168784964796
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06476287608363081	0.06744008159102499	-0.07274600033744383
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.050580061193268744	0.10700362617041967
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.10116012238653749	0.3349622414543474
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.050580061193268744	0.05618165174978511
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.13488016318204998	0.16607530576179808

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.