FROZEN PREDICTION

Florida State vs Louisville

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 6 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Florida State by 2.0

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritNeutral effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-06T22:44:03.869148-05:00 · Snapshot 378 · Home win probability 0.4386 · 80% margin interval -18.7 to 14.7.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 4, 2026 · 5:07 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	-0.12838703946062913
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.04046934403781424
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.033720040795512496	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	-0.11345547460444795
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	0.03103359780978237
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	0.028890422256767016
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.003615736459402545
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.028976612540881075
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.0041277428162007105
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.024161464898754596
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	-0.050999524977828385
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.06744008159102499	-0.06844935071226053
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	-0.13171392655526135
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.08814777952244865
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	-0.10949545467554861

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.