FROZEN PREDICTION

Kent State vs Western Michigan

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 6 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Western Michigan by 6.2

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsNeutral effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-06T22:44:03.869148-05:00 · Snapshot 378 · Home win probability 0.6841 · 80% margin interval -10.4 to 22.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 4, 2026 · 5:07 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	0.10375937378162894
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.036790312761649305
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.033720040795512496	0.05340991422970766
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	0.09553689375845091
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	0.047887940152195135
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	0.013852421138319252
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.027264694701374565
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.0045547665580108355
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.019334191587204255
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.01437643116036761
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	0.03162312245740885
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.06744008159102499	0.017112337678065137
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.029350390383558054
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	-0.07181526467893824
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.0
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	0.10949545467554861

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.