FROZEN PREDICTION

UAB vs Memphis

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 6 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Memphis by 6.2

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionModerately leans away

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-06T22:44:03.869148-05:00 · Snapshot 378 · Home win probability 0.6840 · 80% margin interval -10.4 to 22.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 4, 2026 · 5:07 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	0.1353145452159423
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.0036790312761649313
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.033720040795512496	0.026704957114853836
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	0.002228080989704173
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	0.14720185377739287
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	-0.014005265944119799
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.03472613104307858
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.0322007731381247
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.05763263554695327
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.024165249589371565
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	-0.009336829583509204
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.06744008159102499	0.04278084419516283
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	-0.03324406157996784
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.08814777952244865
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	0.10949545467554866

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.