FROZEN PREDICTION

Sam Houston vs Liberty

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 6 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Liberty by 7.8

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-07T21:38:11.932349-05:00 · Snapshot 378 · Home win probability 0.7250 · 80% margin interval -8.9 to 24.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 4, 2026 · 5:07 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.12952575216726162	0.08388078438432275
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.0485721570627231	0.10069811283089228
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.032381438041815404	0.038425036701143424
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.0809535951045385	0.0510822617702263
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.0809535951045385	-0.04353227230727119
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.02027027027027027	-0.009563925963687166
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02702702702702703	0.024641691533232972
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.033783783783783786	0.021597334326404927
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02702702702702703	-0.01915738240372728
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.033783783783783786	0.03438688104781182
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.0971443141254462	0.07450773366783192
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.06476287608363081	0.12576836836790992
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.0485721570627231	0.07109700299051144
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.0971443141254462	-0.17099778569142327
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.0485721570627231	0.07604001753388788
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.12952575216726162	0.29384700102283157

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.