FROZEN PREDICTION

Charlotte vs North Texas

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 6 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

North Texas by 12.4

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans home

Avoiding bad lossesNeutral effect

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchStrongly leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-07T21:38:11.932349-05:00 · Snapshot 378 · Home win probability 0.8308 · 80% margin interval -4.2 to 29.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 4, 2026 · 5:07 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	0.2661489850818371
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.0
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.033720040795512496	0.0801148713445615
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	0.05400414781125165
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	0.25212722848515295
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	0.01674407962643758
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.050735917154394725
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.008396319610045801
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.029906664932473043
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.008108699646864306
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	0.12608955808175967
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.06744008159102499	0.14622492545906654
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.08015512447101415
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	0.05472437512756394
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.08814777952244866
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	0.21899090935109725

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.