FROZEN PREDICTION

Tulsa vs Navy

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 6 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Tulsa by 3.0

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentHome data unavailable

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-07T21:38:11.932349-05:00 · Snapshot 378 · Home win probability 0.4075 · 80% margin interval -19.7 to 13.6.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 4, 2026 · 5:07 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.13488016318204998	-0.06872456429677246
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.050580061193268744	0.0719520789097399
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.032381438041815404	0.033720040795512496	-0.038425036701143424
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.08430010198878124	-0.08936767842765292
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.08430010198878124	-0.05396105085287564
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02027027027027027	0.015202702702702704	-0.005032064500148227
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02027027027027027	0.029302817283463494
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.02533783783783784	-0.04632263783526139
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02027027027027027	-0.02876597129882934
Team talent	Data unavailable	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.02533783783783784	0.011809565721562144
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.10116012238653749	-0.19925609989221094
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06476287608363081	0.06744008159102499	-0.03774819668168075
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.050580061193268744	-0.05176920505768672
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.10116012238653749	-0.06921002999384109
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.050580061193268744	-0.031966127772663555
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.13488016318204998	-0.18435154634728287

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.