FROZEN PREDICTION

James Madison vs Georgia Southern

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 6 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

James Madison by 5.1

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningStrongly leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-07T21:38:11.932349-05:00 · Snapshot 378 · Home win probability 0.3467 · 80% margin interval -21.8 to 11.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 4, 2026 · 5:07 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	-0.17539289362126922
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.0809386880756285
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.033720040795512496	-0.04005743567228075
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	-0.06247136148339307
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	-0.16286400036719909
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	-0.013081312208154354
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.040047792821025135
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.010980765803074439
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.0017134026784229352
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.02175250932105138
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	-0.11991079194909204
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.06744008159102499	-0.13347623388890803
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.020807077268665746
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	0.14523614969184998
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.08814777952244865
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	-0.3284863640266459

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.