FROZEN PREDICTION

Miami (OH) vs Massachusetts

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 6 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Massachusetts by 5.9

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-08T20:48:14.449780-05:00 · Snapshot 378 · Home win probability 0.6748 · 80% margin interval -10.8 to 22.6.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 4, 2026 · 5:07 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1359300476947536	0.13488016318204998	0.10277311255961882
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050973767885532595	0.050580061193268744	0.04033047552889291
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.033720040795512496	0.014415950300938797
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08495627980922099	0.08430010198878124	0.08978793813358095
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08495627980922099	0.08430010198878124	-0.01472040736701076
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	0.008344500208570044
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.020344935915914943
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.030796123637805813
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.008917482121792091
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.019561173453824098
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10194753577106519	0.10116012238653749	0.05408419264008303
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0679650238473768	0.06744008159102499	0.05502983706677292
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050973767885532595	0.050580061193268744	0.03963531312917439
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10194753577106519	0.10116012238653749	-0.17847331343525463
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050973767885532595	0.050580061193268744	0.13295150840398284
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1359300476947536	0.13488016318204998	0.2199101107148752

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.