FROZEN PREDICTION

Wyoming vs San José State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 6 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

San José State by 3.7

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritNeutral effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-09T18:02:28.017213-05:00 · Snapshot 378 · Home win probability 0.6131 · 80% margin interval -12.9 to 20.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 4, 2026 · 5:07 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	0.060578667310422274
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.04414837531397917
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.033720040795512496	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	-0.05222815636926312
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	0.015304625588816664
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	-0.005535460534397951
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.008393024067742103
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.008405030614698942
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.014953332466236527
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.0063544955458973915
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	0.022688492509664565
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.06744008159102499	0.039358376659549804
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.021057886148654916
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	-0.008967319866518386
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.04407388976122434
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	0.10949545467554861

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.