FROZEN PREDICTION

Wake Forest vs NC State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 6 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

NC State by 2.1

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-09T18:02:28.017213-05:00 · Snapshot 378 · Home win probability 0.5641 · 80% margin interval -14.6 to 18.8.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 4, 2026 · 5:07 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	0.022349567655491724
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.0478274065901441
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.033720040795512496	-0.04005743567228075
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	-0.010101906333545931
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	0.0814278173977804
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	-0.007050138790078989
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.0049134930471079405
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.0061635802298877305
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.035592046547240054
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.015204994553688369
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	0.07038803614828454
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.06744008159102499	-0.027379740284904218
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.1537663626504398
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	0.14605099288613796
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.044073889761224325
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	-0.10949545467554866

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.