FROZEN PREDICTION

UCF vs Oklahoma State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 6 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Oklahoma State by 3.4

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-09T18:02:28.017213-05:00 · Snapshot 378 · Home win probability 0.6035 · 80% margin interval -13.2 to 20.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 4, 2026 · 5:07 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.13488016318204998	-0.02758332104537481
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.050580061193268744	-0.015468380714821893
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.032381438041815404	0.033720040795512496	0.03850947113068501
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.08430010198878124	-0.013462308650237148
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.08430010198878124	-0.00634875403150699
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02027027027027027	0.015202702702702704	-0.026558855467251362
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02027027027027027	-0.026958964824300317
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.02533783783783784	0.0020218288735311045
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02027027027027027	-0.0277015847864757
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.02533783783783784	0.0015014477276330887
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.10116012238653749	0.00691048898586491
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06476287608363081	0.06744008159102499	0.07851865413590282
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.050580061193268744	0.10246542908875561
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.10116012238653749	-0.05494657573403963
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.050580061193268744	0.020939203037123676
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.13488016318204998	0.07852033916868455

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.