FROZEN PREDICTION

Syracuse vs Virginia

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 6 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Virginia by 4.0

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-09T18:02:28.017213-05:00 · Snapshot 378 · Home win probability 0.6199 · 80% margin interval -12.7 to 20.6.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 4, 2026 · 5:07 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1359300476947536	0.12952575216726162	0.07917584923335659
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050973767885532595	0.0485721570627231	-0.062130603319830176
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.032381438041815404	0.001021254528741087
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08495627980922099	0.0809535951045385	0.06717863830665152
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08495627980922099	0.0809535951045385	-0.030759977278540754
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.02027027027027027	0.048036534139397596
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02702702702702703	0.03778889594645552
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.033783783783783786	-0.021628485555114332
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02702702702702703	-0.01801511395144533
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.033783783783783786	-0.016016367025493417
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10194753577106519	0.0971443141254462	0.04303221867134882
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0679650238473768	0.06476287608363081	0.013676333702758628
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050973767885532595	0.0485721570627231	-0.0640671470790714
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10194753577106519	0.0971443141254462	0.0031079278305504027
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050973767885532595	0.0485721570627231	0.07642679290647332
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1359300476947536	0.12952575216726162	0.05298251074343753

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.