FROZEN PREDICTION

Louisiana vs Louisiana Tech

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 6 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Louisiana Tech by 3.9

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesStrongly leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-09T18:02:28.017213-05:00 · Snapshot 378 · Home win probability 0.6169 · 80% margin interval -12.8 to 20.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 4, 2026 · 5:07 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.13488016318204998	0.06491894682316127
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.050580061193268744	-0.04241780641451775
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.032381438041815404	0.033720040795512496	-0.0015479645415957394
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.08430010198878124	0.01776134853207795
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.08430010198878124	0.17269796055397713
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02027027027027027	0.015202702702702704	-0.015533833739536715
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02027027027027027	0.00832614593716082
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.02533783783783784	-0.011326696881825086
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02027027027027027	-0.013832109317574903
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.02533783783783784	-0.02779521155658414
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.10116012238653749	0.040760369402726836
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06476287608363081	0.06744008159102499	-0.13845220126690677
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.050580061193268744	0.001582994878139489
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.10116012238653749	0.334483505635745
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.050580061193268744	-0.031966127772663555
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.13488016318204998	-0.16241105826484784

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.