FROZEN PREDICTION

Houston vs Kansas State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 6 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Houston by 3.3

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsStrongly leans away

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesStrongly leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-09T20:45:42.822872-05:00 · Snapshot 378 · Home win probability 0.4000 · 80% margin interval -20.0 to 13.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 4, 2026 · 5:07 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.13488016318204998	-0.11811539762394253
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.050580061193268744	-0.013103785943751813
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.032381438041815404	0.033720040795512496	0.0016323989711373235
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.08430010198878124	-0.03868009388517059
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.08430010198878124	-0.048196879660418246
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02027027027027027	0.015202702702702704	-0.029321995800342227
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02027027027027027	0.0047169019998055655
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.02533783783783784	0.0050440030503800595
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02027027027027027	-0.000027535465281038063
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.02533783783783784	0.012362879016575635
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.10116012238653749	-0.285887215356926
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06476287608363081	0.06744008159102499	0.017037162659663516
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.050580061193268744	-0.053776605906303294
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.10116012238653749	-0.27109974154691285
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.050580061193268744	0.020939203037123676
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.13488016318204998	-0.030975115506864118

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.