FROZEN PREDICTION

Delaware vs Vanderbilt

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 2 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Vanderbilt by 2.5

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritNot used — data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionModerately leans away

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsNeutral effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesNot used — data unavailable

Statement winsNeutral effect

WinningNeutral effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-12T14:34:35.439042-05:00 · Snapshot 10 · Home win probability 0.5773 · 80% margin interval -14.1 to 19.2.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 11, 2026 · 7:57 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11441441441441443	0.11441441441441443	-0.08124055185150818
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.042905405405405404	0.042905405405405404	-0.02759390628138744
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07150900900900901	0.07150900900900901	-0.010301261466685904
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07150900900900901	0.07150900900900901	-0.06008974658284015
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.03547297297297297	0.03547297297297297	-0.041382845918849026
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.0472972972972973	0.12816346846861396
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.05912162162162163	0.12469997948713576
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.0472972972972973	-0.08995364061720408
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.05912162162162163	0.10024954738323445
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08581081081081081	0.08581081081081081	0.0
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.05720720720720721	0.05720720720720721	-0.03776252973697114
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.042905405405405404	0.042905405405405404	0.0
Tough schedules	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.081081	0.08108108108108109	0.08108108108108109	0.0
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.042905405405405404	0.042905405405405404	0.0
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11441441441441443	0.11441441441441443	0.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.