FROZEN PREDICTION

North Carolina vs Pittsburgh

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 6 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Pittsburgh by 9.4

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-10T04:14:28.609500-05:00 · Snapshot 378 · Home win probability 0.7645 · 80% margin interval -7.3 to 26.0.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 4, 2026 · 5:07 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.12952575216726162	0.13589395965493012
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.0485721570627231	0.04901780770200456
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.032381438041815404	0.04001521845750995
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.0809535951045385	0.07841222893802674
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.0809535951045385	0.10501211045385901
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.02027027027027027	0.021968921359127036
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02702702702702703	0.03383195479289588
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.033783783783783786	-0.02032673479726063
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02702702702702703	0.012981898140024126
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.033783783783783786	-0.019679316760953625
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.0971443141254462	0.194786523464888
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.06476287608363081	0.06545465645722476
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.0485721570627231	0.004463712417092799
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.0971443141254462	-0.06793179597660151
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.0485721570627231	0.07604001753388788
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.12952575216726162	0.2719065129403964

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.