FROZEN PREDICTION

Old Dominion vs App State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 6 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

App State by 6.9

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesStrongly leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-10T04:14:28.609500-05:00 · Snapshot 378 · Home win probability 0.7032 · 80% margin interval -9.7 to 23.6.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 4, 2026 · 5:07 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.13488016318204998	0.11085378786241332
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.050580061193268744	0.07960223846320194
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.032381438041815404	0.033720040795512496	0.07856690680296576
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.08430010198878124	0.006474076497488986
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.08430010198878124	0.08680817721716186
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02027027027027027	0.015202702702702704	-0.00737293089529165
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02027027027027027	-0.044779844201862845
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.02533783783783784	0.004793924625129495
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02027027027027027	0.0212601947817918
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.02533783783783784	0.022437094657187812
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.10116012238653749	0.0701980955243992
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06476287608363081	0.06744008159102499	0.10155399564923019
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.050580061193268744	0.06320891772584723
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.10116012238653749	-0.26921607436824885
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.050580061193268744	0.012107761988560773
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.13488016318204998	0.2975112485197818

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.