FROZEN PREDICTION

Buffalo vs Toledo

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 6 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Toledo by 10.1

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-10T04:14:28.609500-05:00 · Snapshot 378 · Home win probability 0.7809 · 80% margin interval -6.6 to 26.7.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 4, 2026 · 5:07 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	0.21787935945202724
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.09197578190412328
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.033720040795512496	0.026704957114853836
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	0.036505774067078514
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	0.17561787762548897
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	-0.01396257955691423
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.03290765858113434
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.002829987636689027
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.04972761864422927
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.02021024789463493
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	0.05251496785753781
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.06744008159102499	0.130053766353295
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	-0.09151832692928179
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.132221669283673
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	0.21899090935109727

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.