FROZEN PREDICTION

UCLA vs Oregon

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 6 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Oregon by 2.8

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactModerately leans away

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-10T04:14:28.609500-05:00 · Snapshot 378 · Home win probability 0.5859 · 80% margin interval -13.8 to 19.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 4, 2026 · 5:07 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.13036565977742448	-0.015209447627278716
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.04888712241653418	-0.055727378863638384
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.032381438041815404	0.02702702702702703	-0.001021254528741087
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.08147853736089031	0.017941653985938902
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.08147853736089031	0.01596129618194267
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.07283674637500348
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.06481942185443368
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.0645551866208192
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.01900319334250892
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.03811662845436457
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.09777424483306836	0.0538551589790455
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06476287608363081	0.06518282988871224	-0.04336837559322262
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.04888712241653418	-0.022750425902723637
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.09777424483306836	0.17968354930982097
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.04888712241653418	-0.06407026826799257
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.13036565977742448	-0.13285313921671765

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.