FROZEN PREDICTION

Illinois vs Michigan State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 6 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Michigan State by 1.8

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-10T04:14:28.609500-05:00 · Snapshot 378 · Home win probability 0.5564 · 80% margin interval -14.8 to 18.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 4, 2026 · 5:07 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1359300476947536	0.13488016318204998	-0.029281530943526344
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050973767885532595	0.050580061193268744	-0.018648572733327238
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.033720040795512496	0.04112090741579263
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08495627980922099	0.08430010198878124	0.09463258954190924
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08495627980922099	0.08430010198878124	-0.118607615879578
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	-0.01567141202536893
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.023859896283837532
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.003113639725706909
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.00015576387985662826
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.010462777210621397
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10194753577106519	0.10116012238653749	0.022603825078614484
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0679650238473768	0.06744008159102499	-0.1172923357482586
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050973767885532595	0.050580061193268744	-0.0003103911525763753
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10194753577106519	0.10116012238653749	0.10970509898506191
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050973767885532595	0.050580061193268744	-0.04437324188408773
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1359300476947536	0.13488016318204998	-0.0007853870555011716

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.