FROZEN PREDICTION

Maryland vs Ohio State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 6 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Ohio State by 9.4

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-10T12:50:51.307168-05:00 · Snapshot 378 · Home win probability 0.7657 · 80% margin interval -7.2 to 26.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 4, 2026 · 5:07 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.1359300476947536	0.19157550057296685
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050973767885532595	0.12554093846837744
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.02702702702702703	-0.04112090741579263
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08495627980922099	0.0338533715038832
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08495627980922099	0.11336566597984163
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	-0.024401466699021417
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.04065153684036907
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.03417063073098474
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.011137117409749079
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.04132484761219552
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10194753577106519	0.05897308487408729
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.0679650238473768	0.23006863502687974
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050973767885532595	0.04536539756273834
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10194753577106519	-0.1794747297775345
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050973767885532595	0.08810406789758764
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.1359300476947536	0.21977629640659846

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.