FROZEN PREDICTION

San Diego State vs Oregon State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 6 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Oregon State by 6.2

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-10T12:50:51.307168-05:00 · Snapshot 378 · Home win probability 0.6833 · 80% margin interval -10.5 to 22.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 4, 2026 · 5:07 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1359300476947536	0.13488016318204998	0.1691358312091375
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050973767885532595	0.050580061193268744	0.04432451337490628
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.033720040795512496	-0.03899396392876887
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08495627980922099	0.08430010198878124	0.011329471315305588
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08495627980922099	0.08430010198878124	0.09740629168368964
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	-0.02957753539275324
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.029236009077584266
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.0019240431527624054
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.024162871862759804
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.013950369614161877
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10194753577106519	0.10116012238653749	-0.028385120679060787
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0679650238473768	0.06744008159102499	0.18300994316545474
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050973767885532595	0.050580061193268744	0.04745154132351767
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10194753577106519	0.10116012238653749	-0.08774063640350349
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050973767885532595	0.050580061193268744	0.08853455489503409
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1359300476947536	0.13488016318204998	0.10956236182968697

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.