FROZEN PREDICTION

Coastal Carolina vs Marshall

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 6 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Marshall by 2.6

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-10T13:02:18.988016-05:00 · Snapshot 378 · Home win probability 0.5779 · 80% margin interval -14.1 to 19.2.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 4, 2026 · 5:07 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	-0.13236323525134974
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.06622256297096876
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.033720040795512496	0.0801148713445615
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	-0.13312368022736126
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	-0.028755948145975187
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	0.012172505254745749
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.01259363200152194
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.01139726071305271
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.057262696332293764
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.003830106904376511
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	0.024885954702620325
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.06744008159102499	0.018823571445871642
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	0.017579412726447235
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	-0.014990888815640462
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.04407388976122434
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	0.21899090935109725

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.